Graduate employment has slipped back to pre-Covid levels as a weakening economy depresses hiring and unwinds the temporary post-pandemic surge in opportunities, according to new research from Prospects at Jisc.
The annual What do graduates do? report, published on 25 November, shows a sharp deterioration in outcomes for the 2023 graduating cohort, who entered the labour market during a period of slowing demand and were surveyed in autumn 2024 as conditions worsened further.
Just 56.4% of graduates were in full-time work 15 months after leaving university — down 2.6 percentage points on the previous year and the lowest rate since the cohort that graduated immediately before the Covid recovery boom in 2020. The decline has continued through 2025.
Charlie Ball, head of labour market intelligence at Jisc, said post-pandemic hiring conditions had created “unrealistic expectations”.
“Many assumed the strong post-Covid jobs market was normal, but it really wasn’t,” he said. “We’ve now returned to normal labour market cycles after a few years of post-Covid exuberance. Vacancies are falling, businesses are unconfident and, with the AI bubble set to burst, recession looks more imminent.”
Graduate unemployment also ticked upward, rising from 5.6% to 6.2%, though this remains significantly lower than the broader youth unemployment rate of 15.3%.
One of the most notable shifts is a fall in graduates entering IT roles. Just 5.1% of the cohort moved into tech jobs — down from 6.7% — reflecting a sharp drop in IT vacancies as the sector corrects from post-pandemic over-recruitment.
Graduates entering administrative “non-graduate” roles fell markedly, with retail once again the largest destination for non-graduate employment — a return to long-term pre-Covid patterns.
Self-employment has rebounded strongly, rising to 11.4%, up from 8.8% last year, after a prolonged slump during Covid.
Despite the softening jobs market, sustained skills shortages continue to buoy demand in key sectors. Engineering, IT, health and social care remain in high demand, with the top graduate roles occupied by nurses, coders, doctors, teachers and marketing professionals.
Ball urged graduates not to be discouraged, stressing that those with higher education still fare significantly better in recessionary labour markets.
“Most graduates get good jobs quite quickly, and that will continue,” he said. “But the process will be tougher and more competitive. Students will need strong support from careers services — and they shouldn’t get lost in the AI hype. At this point there is little evidence of widespread job loss due to AI, and industry still needs people who can use these tools with human judgement.”
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‘Covid boom’ ends as graduate job prospects fall back to pre-pandemic levels
